What we’re watching: Weekly disaster update, August 19

Editor’s note: The “What we’re watching” blog posts are currently on a summer schedule. A new post will be published on a biweekly basis. The next post will be published following Labor Day.

We know all too well that disaster can strike anytime, anywhere in the world. Some disasters make headlines; others do not. Here at the Center for Disaster Philanthropy (CDP), we monitor the status of disasters worldwide and compile a list of the ones we’re tracking weekly, along with relevant disaster-related media coverage.

Here’s what we’re watching for the week of Aug. 19, 2024.

New or Emerging Disasters

Mpox – Global: The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared the latest spread of Mpox (formerly Monkeypox) a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security on Aug. 13. The following day, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the resurgence of mpox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The last PHEIC was for the 2022 Mpox outbreak, which had 100,000 cases.

There are two variants of the virus: clade I and clade II. The current variant is clade 1, which has been a significant issue in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since January 2023. For more information about the outbreak and other issues in the DRC, please see the Complex Humanitarian Emergency section below.

Cases of clade 1 mpox have now spread to more than 12 other countries in the region, as well as to Sweden and possibly Pakistan.

According to the Associated Press, “Europe’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said that more imported cases of mpox from Africa were ‘highly likely,’ but the chances of local outbreaks in Europe were very low.”

Meanwhile, a Danish company is trying to get vaccine approval for teens, as the majority of the cases in Africa are in young people under 18.

Trash Heap Collapse – Uganda: At least 30 people are dead, with more than three dozen still missing, after a mountain of trash was washed by rains onto 33 homes while people slept. The landfill site, located in the Kiteezi area, outside Uganda’s capital, Kampala, collapsed on Aug. 16. Government officials said about 1,000 people were affected.

Rains/Flooding/Mudslides – United States: Heavy rains led to flash floods and mudslides in the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut on Aug. 18-19, with multiple locations recording a 1000-year rainfall event. In the New York City area, especially on Long Island, 4-6 inches of rain fell overnight, and several more inches were expected. Several mudslides occurred in Connecticut, which also had its first flash flood emergency since 2021. One person is dead, and one is missing in the state due to fast-moving water. Officials say this was unrelated to Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto – Bermuda: Ernesto passed north of Puerto Rico on Aug. 14, just as it strengthened into a hurricane. While no deaths were reported immediately, about half of the island was without power at the height: more than 700,000 customers. About 96% of power was restored by Aug. 18 at 6 p.m. central.

Category 1 Hurricane Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda in the early morning of Aug. 17. About 7-9 inches of rain were expected to hit the island, bringing the risk of flash flooding. Three deaths from rip currents(two in North Carolina and one in South Carolina) were reported on Aug. 17. Ernesto is anticipated to bring rain and winds to Newfoundland, Canada, on Aug. 19 and 20.

As of 11 a.m. AST on Aug. 19, Ernesto is located 320 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia and is strengthening, although still a Category 1 hurricane.

For more about this year’s tropical events, see our 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season disaster profile.

Flood/Mudslide – Nepal: The small Sherpa village of Thame in the Namche region of Solukhumbu District, Nepal, was rendered almost completely uninhabitable after a glacial lake outburst caused the Thame River to flood on Aug.16. Half the village was destroyed (including a school, health clinic and 20 houses) in the debris flow and one person has been reported missing. Thame is home to many Sherpa mountaineers working in the Everest Region.

Wildfires – Greece: Following 2023’s largest-ever wildfire season, the latest fires in Greece led to evacuations in several towns in Athens’ suburbs. Known as the Attica fires, they were brought under control on Aug. 14, but not before burning 124,710 acres of land and 100 homes and businesses. The fires killed one woman and injured dozens. High temperatures (over 100˚F) and low rainfall have also led to water shortages. Greece’s National Observatory said wildfires destroyed 37% of forests in the greater Athens area in the past eight years.

Floods – Spain: Heavy rains hit parts of Spain on Aug. 14 and 15, especially the Balearic Islands, causing extensive flooding and leading to evacuations and rescues of dozens of people. Hardest-hit was the island of Menorca, which received 7.8 inches of rain in under a day – over 10 times what it receives in an average August.

Previous/Ongoing Disasters

COVID-19 – Worldwide: More than 4.5 years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus and its newest variants are making a resurgence in many parts of the world, including New Zealand, the U.S., China, South Korea and at the Paris Olympics.

While summer increases have happened annually, this year is the largest summer wave the U.S. has seen in two years, and the trend is expected to continue into the fall. Confirmation of the number of cases is imprecise, relying on wastewater surveillance, but testing shows unusually high rates of the virus in wastewater. Excessive heat this year is suspected to have pushed more people indoors, and three variants are causing 70% of all cases in the U.S. The Food and Drug Administration is considering approval for new vaccines targeting the KP.2 variant and possibly the JN.1 strain.

The LA Times says, “The FLiRT subvariants have been the major culprits behind this summer’s COVID spike, with one in particular starting to flex its hyper-infectious muscle. KP.3.1.1 is now the single most common coronavirus strain circulating nationwide, constituting an estimated 36.8% of specimens for the two-week period that ended Saturday, up from 12.7% a month ago, CDC data show.”

As of July 21, 2024, there have been 775 million confirmed cases and more than seven million deaths globally since the pandemic started in early 2020.

Hurricanes Debby – Canada: Hurricane Debby brought significant flooding to many parts of the U.S. and Canada. Montreal, Quebec, with a population of 2 million people, was the hardest hit.

On Aug. 9, more than 6.2 inches of rain fell from Debby, breaking the record rainfall set in November 1996. More than half a million customers were without power at the height of the power outage. Thousands of homes across the island were flooded. A week later, a major water main broke, which authorities also attributed to Debby. A wall of water more than 33 feet high swept across the island. About 100 homes were flooded, and almost 150,000 were put under a boil water advisory due to a loss in water pressure. The provincial government will be providing compensation for those flooded by rainwater or from the water main break.

For more about this year’s tropical events, see our 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season disaster profile.

Rainy Season – West and Central Africa: As of mid-August, the first two months of the rainy season in West and Central Africa had affected almost 720,000 people across several countries. Dozens of people have drowned, and hundreds have been injured. At least 64,000 acres of agricultural land have been flooded, and 4,200 livestock animals have been killed, affecting food production. Medical centers and schools have been damaged or destroyed, along with 62,000 homes.

Thousands of refugees from Sudan have fled to Chad since the civil war began in April 2023. Heavy rains in Chad’s southeastern Sila region in mid-August led to more than 50,000 people fleeing.

Monsoons – India: Significantly above-average monsoon rains have led to 67 fatalities and crop damage on about 200,000 acres this year in Karnataka, and more rains are anticipated. Rainfall excesses are approximately 24-28%this year. The state government has already paid $1.1 million to homeowners and farmers.

Cholera – Multiple Locations: In the first seven months of the year, there were more than 307,000 cholera cases, including 2,326 deaths. Cases were reported from 26 countries across five WHO regions, with the highest cases reported in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Since January 2023, the number of vaccine doses requested (105 million) is double the 55 million vaccine doses produced, leading to an extreme shortfall and challenges in effectively managing the spread of the disease. The WHO considers cholera a grade 3 emergency, their highest internal classification level.

Billion-Dollar Disaster – U.S.: As of Aug. 8, there have been 19 weather and climate disasters in the U.S. with an insured economic loss of more than $1 billion each in 2024. These include 17 storms (two winter storms and 15 severe storm events), Hurricane Beryl, and wildfires in June and July in New Mexico. Three events are still under investigation for inclusion. In total, there were 149 deaths and an estimated cost of just under $50 billion total. From 1980-2024, the average is 8.8 billion dollar disasters per year, but from 2019 to 2023, the yearly average is 20.4 events per year. As of June 30, 2024, Munich Re Group estimates that climate and weather events globally have cost $120 billion in economic losses, half of which is borne by insurance. Four of these events were in the U.S.

In addition to the disasters listed above, we actively monitor the following disasters or humanitarian emergencies. For more information, see the relevant disaster profiles, which are updated regularly.

• Sudan Humanitarian Crisis
• 2024 North American Wildfires
• 2024 U.S. Floods
• 2024 U.S. Tornadoes
• Afghanistan Humanitarian Crisis
• Haiti Humanitarian Crisis
• Horn of Africa Hunger Crisis 
• Gaza-Israeli Humanitarian Crisis 

Complex Humanitarian Emergencies – Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Many places worldwide are experiencing emergencies caused by conflict, climate change, drought, famine, economic challenges and other conditions that combine to create a complex humanitarian emergency (CHE). CDP maintains complete profiles on several CHEs, and what CDP considers Level 1 CHEs are profiled in this weekly blog post and tracked.

The recent mpox outbreak in DRC was declared a public health emergency of international concern on Aug. 14 by WHO. The declaration was made due to a significant increase in mpox cases in the country and the spread of a new variant, Clade 1b, to neighboring countries such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda, which had not previously reported cases of mpox.

Mpox is caused by a virus in the same family as smallpox. The infection can clear up on its own and last up to 21 days. In some cases, it is fatal, particularly for vulnerable groups, including small children. This year, more than 14,000 cases and 511 deaths have been reported in DRC. With the declaration of a public health emergency, there is hope for improved response coordination and potentially an increase in supplies and aid.

In addition to decades of conflict, fighting between the Congolese government and the M23 armed group in recent years has contributed to instability, attacks against civilians, large-scale displacement and food insecurity. Reporting from The New Humanitarian reveals the complexity of the security situation in the east, including the government’s use of militias. Violence between rival communities in the western parts of DRC also contributes to instability.

What We’re Reading

• National Hurricane Center debuts a new forecast cone – WMNF: “The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has released a new experimental forecast cone for storms. And it’s the most significant change to the forecast track since 2017. The new cone includes inland watches and warnings to highlight the inland risk of damaging wind gusts from landfalling tropical systems.
• These 10 U.S. states are America’s least-prepared for climate change and extreme weather – CNBC: Louisiana and New Jersey tied for first in the list of 10 states that are not ready for the impacts of climate and weather. The study examined a variety of factors, including the number of properties “at risk of major damage from flooding, extreme heat, wildfires and wind in the next 30 years.” In New Jersey, that’s 97% of properties, and in Louisiana, it’s 100%.
• Nighttime light data shows inequities in restoring power after Hurricane Michael – Science Daily: A study after Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle found that power was restored faster in wealthier and/or more urban communities. Quick return of electricity and other utilities helps reduce the time and cost of recovery.
• Climate change raised the odds of unprecedented wildfires in 2023-24 – Science Daily: “Unprecedented wildfires in Canada and parts of Amazonia last year were at least three times more likely due to climate change and contributed to high levels of CO2 emissions from burning globally, according to a new systematic review. The State of Wildfires report takes stock of extreme wildfires of the 2023-2024 fire season (March 2023-February 2024), explains their causes, and assesses whether events could have been predicted.”
• 2024 sees Southern California’s highest M4+ earthquake count since 1988, return to long-term average – The Watchers: “Since 1932, Southern California has averaged 10-12 M4 earthquakes annually. However, in the last 20 years, this number dropped to around 5 per year. In 2024, with 13 M4s already recorded, the region is seeing a return to its long-term average.”
• 5 things you need to know about the Sudan humanitarian crisis – CDP: CDP created a resource for funders about famine and humanitarian crises in Sudan. While the situation in Sudan is dire, donors and social impact partners can use high-impact strategies to help address urgent, immediate and long-term needs.

Something fun: CDP staff work remotely, but I’m trying to imagine calling in late because of unusual wild animals blocking traffic on my commute. That’s what happened recently as several unusual pets escaped from their homes. On Aug. 16, several folks were late to work because of a kangaroo roaming the streets of Virginia. That same week in Indiana, another Australian native, an escaped emu, caused issues on a state highway in Indiana. And, Pete the peacock got grounded when he finally returned to his girlfriend after several days on the loose in Cape Cod.