Horn of Africa Hunger Crisis

• The Horn of Africa has, in recent years, experienced its worst drought in 40 years.
• Somalia’s drought surpassed most recent droughts in duration and severity.
• With nearly 64 million people in need of humanitarian and protection assistance across the Horn of Africa, the region accounts for close to 22% of global humanitarian needs in 2024.
• An estimated 58.4 million people were highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+) in January 2024 in the region.
• Data from the IPC show more than 1.9 million people in Kenya will experience acute food insecurity through June 2024, while 4 million in Somalia and 5.78 million in South Sudan will experience acute food insecurity through March 2024.
• As a result of drought and the effects of a two-year war, almost 400 starvation deaths were reported over the final months of 2023 in Ethiopia. Similarly, in March 2023 the Somali government and the UN said around 43,000 people may have died in Somalia in 2022 after several failed rainy seasons. The report was the first official death toll from the drought in the Horn of Africa.
• More than 13.2 million livestock, which pastoralist families rely on for livelihoods, have died across the region. In Kenya alone, the economic cost of livestock loss is estimated at more than $1.5 billion.

A key finding from the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Ecological Threat Report, released in November 2023, was that a 25% rise in food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36%. The report also found, “Ecological threats, such as rapid population growth, water risk and food insecurity will be compounded by climate change, causing mass displacement of people and conflict.”

In Somalia, conflict disrupts livelihoods, particularly in central and southern areas.

Al-Qaeda-linked Al Shabaab has stepped up attacks in a show of resurgence since Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government launched an offensive against the group in August 2022.

ACLED records more than 205 political violence events and at least 539 reported fatalities from March 23 to April 19, 2024. Most political violence centered in the Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab increased attacks targeting security forces. From Dec. 9, 2023 to Jan. 19, 2024, ACLED recorded almost 300 political violence events and nearly 726 reported fatalities.

After witnessing extreme events for decades, including war, famine, mass displacement and inter-communal violence, Somalis experience high levels of psychological disorders. A preliminary study by the UN, the health ministry and the national university has found that 76% of Somalis have experienced such disorders. According to Hodan Ali, Senior Policy Advisor, Health and Social Services, for the Office of the Somalia President, “invisible wounds” keep people from engaging in recovery, reconciliation, and civic engagement initiatives.

In Ethiopia, a peace deal signed by the government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022 ended a brutal two-year war that displaced millions and created dire humanitarian conditions in the Tigray region. However, recovery and the resumption of services there will take time as conditions are exacerbated by volatile climate conditions and extended drought. For more, see our Ethiopia Humanitarian Crisis profile.

Humanitarian needs in South Sudan are persistent due to food insecurity, conflict, economic downturn, displacement, climatic shocks, including floods and droughts, and disease outbreaks.

Since the start of the conflict in Sudan on April 15, 2023, thousands have fled to neighboring South Sudan. One year on, 655,694 individuals arrived in South Sudan from Sudan as of April 30, with an average of about 1,800 people daily crossing into South Sudan.

The interconnection between climate, conflict and food security is more prominent in fragile or developing contexts. Logistic and security challenges often impede humanitarians’ access to affected people. State and non-state actors can obstruct access in the region. Some experts have called for greater emphasis on the root causes of conflicts and the need for greater international cooperation and support for “African solutions to African problems.”

The drought has led to mass displacement across the Horn of Africa. The floods have also contributed to displacement. Somalia is recovering from the 2023 rainy season, where flooding affected the districts of Jowhar, Balcad and the South West state, displacing 14,400 people and destroying crops.

In the first half of 2024, devastating floods in the region triggered widespread displacement, with hundreds of thousands displaced. As of early May, 637,000 people were affected, including 234,000 displaced as of May 3, 2024. The most marginalized populations are among the worst affected. In Kenya, nearly 20,000 people in the Dadaab refugee camps were displaced due to rising water levels.

According to the regional Migrant Response Plan (MRP) for the Horn of Africa to Yemen and Southern Africa 2024, migration originating in the Horn of Africa is “triggered by insecurity, environmental degradation, harsh climate conditions, public health, emergencies, socioeconomic drivers, and traditional seasonal factors.”

IOM calls it “the busiest and riskiest migration corridors in the world” due to hundreds of thousands of people traveling in an irregular manner, often relying on smugglers to facilitate movement along the Eastern Route through Djibouti and Southern Route through Kenya.

Through December 2023, IOM said although migration continues to be economically driven, more than half of migrants departing from the Somali region of Ethiopia were traveling due to disasters (58%). Concerns were also raised about the number of women, children and unaccompanied children migrating through the Horn of Africa. Most of the displaced in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are women and children.

The drought is expected to keep depleting the resources in host countries, limiting their ability to support migrants along the routes and driving more people to migrate irregularly. According to the 2024 Migrants Needs Overview, more than 1.7 million people are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2024.

In recent years, the Horn of Africa has been experiencing its worst drought in more than four decades. The March to May 2022 rainy season was the driest in the last 70 years. After five consecutive below-average rainy seasons, the humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa is expanding and deepening.

A scientific study published in April 2023 found that “as a result of human-induced climate change, the combination of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration as unusual as the recent conditions would not have led to drought at all in a 1.2°C cooler world.”

Across the region, drought and other weather extremes, economic shocks and conflict combine to produce devastating consequences for millions. The 2023 Global Report on Food Crises said, “The economic resilience of poor countries has dramatically decreased, and they now face extended recovery periods and less ability to cope with future shocks.”

The prolonged drought has damaged soil, making it challenging to absorb the rain to grow crops. Caroline Wainwright, a climate scientist at Cardiff University in the United Kingdom, said the flooding does not simply undo three years of drought. In advance of the anticipated El Niño-induced flooding, $15 million was released from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund in early October 2023 to support early action and response.

Early warning systems designed to warn against various hazards is one need that would help with limiting the impacts of climate-fueled disasters in the long run. According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, “Countries with substantial to comprehensive early warning system coverage have one-eighth the disaster mortality of those with limited or no coverage. Sadly, only 40% of Africa is covered by such systems, and even those are compromised by quality issues.”

According to FEWS NET’s East Africa Food Security Outlook for March to May 2024, “In March, several parts of East Africa continue to face humanitarian crises characterized by widespread area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. The elevated levels of acute food insecurity are primarily driven by the compounding impacts of protracted conflict, poor macroeconomic conditions, and the historic 2020-2023 drought.”

Data from the IPC show more than 1.9 million people in Kenya will experience acute food insecurity through June 2024, while 4 million in Somalia and 5.78 million in South Sudan will experience acute food insecurity through March 2024. The same food insecurity classification system is not available in Ethiopia, and therefore the figures there are likely underestimated.

About 11 million people in Ethiopia are severely food insecure due to the drought, according to the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan. The 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan for Ethiopia said, “Consecutive failed rainy seasons since 2020 have eroded livelihoods and worsened food insecurity and acute malnutrition.”

According to WHO, the food crisis in the region is also a health crisis. In addition to severe malnutrition, a life-threatening condition, there is an increased risk of water-borne diseases due to limited safe drinking water, outbreaks of infectious diseases and decreased access to health services.

In Ethiopia and Somalia, agriculture employs 67% and 80% of people, respectively, and large portions of the region’s farmland are rain-fed. The drought and other extreme weather events continue to affect people’s livelihoods which in turn impact the food security situation.

More than 13.2 million livestock, which pastoralist families rely on for livelihoods, have already died across the region. In Kenya alone, the economic cost of livestock loss is estimated at more than $1.5 billion. Previous experience shows that it takes about five years for a pastoralist family to rebuild their herd after a drought.

In Somalia, the livestock sector is central to economic and cultural life. The Somalia Livestock Price Bulletin for January 2024 shows the prices for cattle, goats and camel’s milk to be higher in many locations compared to the previous year and the five-year average.

According to UNOCHA, “Millions of children and women’s lives are at heightened risk of death and other long-term consequences due to high rates of malnutrition. Acute food insecurity, conflict, and a high prevalence of infectious diseases are contributing to high rates of malnutrition, aggravated by El Niño-induced flooding in 2023 and the lingering effects of the drought.”

In South Sudan, approximately 870,000 pregnant/lactating women are malnourished through at least June 2024. Around 1.7 million children in the country are malnourished.

While most migration through the region is done by men, women and children are also often forced to migrate. For example, according to IOM, even though the share of women and children migrating through Ethiopia remained similar between February 2024 (30%) and March 2024 (32%), the number of children increased by 40% and the number of women increased by 26%.