South Sudan Humanitarian Crisis

• Approximately 67% of South Sudan’s population lives at the international poverty line and the World Bank says, “GDP per-capita growth suggest that extreme poverty will likely continue to increase, reaching 73% of the population by 2024.” The inflation rate for consumer prices in South Sudan moved over the past 12 years between -0.1% and 380%.
• About 5.83 million people, almost half of South Sudan’s population, are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between September to November 2023.
• Since the outbreak of fighting in Sudan on April 15, 2023, there’s been an influx of people fleeing the country with more than 434,000 people recorded as crossing the border into South Sudan as of Dec. 11, 2023, and more people expected to arrive as the fighting continues.
• One million people have been affected by four consecutive years of flooding that have submerged an area larger than Denmark.
• To address the most critical needs of 6.8 million people, the 2024 HRP will require $1.8 billion and “Without this support, peoples’ vulnerability risks further deterioration.”
• South Sudan’s 2024 Regional Refugee Response Plan requires $1.5 billion to meet the critical needs of more than 2.3 million refugees and asylum seekers and 2.4 million members of their host communities.
• As of Jan. 31, 2024, there were 2,269,893 South Sudanese refugees hosted in neighboring countries, with Uganda hosting 40.9% (926,550) of the total figure.

South Sudan remains one of the least peaceful countries in the world, according to the 2023 Global Peace Index. South Sudan experienced a 1% deterioration of its overall score in the 2023 report, owing to deteriorations in the “ongoing conflict” and “militarization” domains.

South Sudan’s latest peace agreement, the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), was signed in 2018. The agreement led to a fragile truce and resulted in the formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity in February 2020.

In March 2023, President Kiir appointed a member of his own party as defense minister. The move breaches part of the peace deal in which the position should be selected by the party of First Vice President and opposition leader, Riek Machar.

It is widely expected that the first general national elections will be held in South Sudan in December 2024, followed by the conclusion of the transitional arrangements set out and agreed to in the R-ARCSS.

Amnesty International documented potential war crimes and other violations during the fighting in Western Equatoria in 2021. The various forms of violence threaten and undermine people’s physical and mental well-being.

In September 2022, a UN human rights team said incidents of rape had become so common in South Sudan that many women no longer report repeated sexual attacks. Rape victims lack access to medical and trauma care.

Community leaders and other individuals involved in peacebuilding work in South Sudan were interviewed by The New Humanitarian and called for long-term initiatives that build positive ties between communities that have been divided by a civil war that cleaved groups along ethnic lines.

South Sudan continues to be one of the most dangerous places for aid workers. On Nov. 6, 2023, a South Sudanese national aid worker was killed while on a field trip to respond to a suspected measles outbreak in the Greater Pibor Administrative Area.

In January 2024, 52 people, including women and children, were killed in the Abyei region, a disputed region between Sudan and South Sudan. A Ghanaian peacekeeper from the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei was killed when the base in Agok town was attacked. The UN said following the attacks that armed youth from rival factions of the Dinka ethnic group have been battling over the location of an administrative boundary in the oil-rich region.

Exacerbating the humanitarian situation in South Sudan is the fighting that erupted in neighboring Sudan in mid-April between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces. More than 475,000 people were recorded as crossing the border into South Sudan as of Dec. 31, 2023. The majority are South Sudanese returnees who have been residing in Sudan.

In addition to causing significant displacement, the fighting on both sides of the border is complicating and reducing humanitarian access. Although December 2023 saw a slight decrease in the number of reported incidents related to humanitarian access constraints throughout the country compared to November, “bureaucratic impediments, operational interferences and active hostilities resulted in violence against humanitarian staff.”

Thousands of people fleeing to South Sudan pass through the town of Renk, where the humanitarian situation is dire. The Renk Transit Centre was designed to accommodate around 4,000 people, but more than 23,000 are staying there. Water and sanitation services are insufficient in Renk, and cases of cholera, measles and severe malnutrition are on the rise.

The UN envoy for South Sudan, told the UN Security Council in June 2023 that the humanitarian, economic and political impacts of the Sudanese fighting are exacerbating “the existing triggers and drivers of conflict” in South Sudan, and are “complicating an already tenuous security situation across the country.”

In November 2023, the UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Hanna Serwaa Tetteh told the UN Security Council the conflict in Sudan “is profoundly affecting bilateral relations between Sudan and South Sudan, with significant humanitarian, security, economic and political consequences that are a matter of deep concern among the South Sudanese political leadership.”

South Sudan is facing its worst flooding in decades. Four consecutive years of record-breaking rains and floods covered two-thirds of the country and left people without food or land to cultivate. The devastating flooding damaged shelters and schools, destroyed crops and household goods, reduced access to safe water and hindered humanitarian access.

December to February are typically the driest months for South Sudan, when the rivers subside and the Sudd wetlands air out. For more details on South Sudan’s seasonality, refer to the image below. The water from the previous floods is not receding before the next rains come. Dr. Liz Stephens, professor in climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading, said, “It will certainly take years for the floods from 2021 to recede, because the land is disconnected from the main river, so floodwaters have to evaporate rather than drain away.”

The effects of the flooding are severe and broad. In 2021, the flooding destroyed 161,055 acres (65,177 hectares) of agricultural land and killed 795,558 livestock. In 2022, flooding affected over 900,000 people, displacing 140,000 people across 29 counties.

According to UNOCHA in June 2023, “These recurring floods have worsened an already dire situation, leaving people without food and viable land for cultivation. The same states affected by severe flooding are now receiving refugees and returnees from Sudan, further straining the capacity to respond.”

Flooding also directly affects access to potable groundwater, movement of conflict-affected populations, livestock and human health and safety and movement of humanitarian aid.

In August 2023, the southern side of Renk experienced localized flooding, which displaced an estimated 1,750 people in Renk town and significantly affected the surrounding areas. As of November 2023, about 15% of the country is submerged year-round, as opposed to 5% several years ago.

Many people who lost their 2021 harvest lost their livestock due to diseases caused by animals grazing on flooded fields. Collecting and eating plants is one coping strategy people have used. Thousands of people are being forced to move, perhaps permanently, from their traditional lands. With South Sudan already experiencing ethnic tensions and subnational conflict over resources, large scale displacements caused by flooding are likely to exacerbate the situation as people move into new lands.

In 2020, South Sudan announced a plan to have state-owned Nile Petroleum Corp take over oil production when existing operators’ contracts expired. In February 2023, South Sudan’s Minister of Petroleum said the country’s oil production dropped to 140,000 barrels per day from 160,000 barrels per day in 2022 due to heavy flooding in the northern oil fields. Oil production, along with agriculture, are the most important sectors of South Sudan’s economy, with oil contributing 90% of revenue, according to the World Bank.

Critical drivers of displacement in South Sudan are conflict, persistent poverty, food insecurity and flooding. As of the end of December 2023, there were two million IDPs in South Sudan, and more than 2.26 million South Sudanese are refugees in neighboring countries as of Jan. 31, 2024.

Of the five neighboring countries hosting South Sudanese refugees, Uganda hosts the most at nearly 41%. Most refugees are situated in remote and economically underserved areas. Host communities are often in an unstable socioeconomic situation themselves, and new refugees’ arrival could further exacerbate hardship.

Many displaced people have been forced to relocate multiple times to seek better living conditions or flee violence, particularly as those South Sudanese who fled northward into Sudan have again been displaced by violence and conflict there. Women, girls and people with disabilities are at risk of sexual violence, both inside displacement sites and when collecting fuel or food in surrounding areas.

A macroeconomic crisis, linked to a decade of conflict, is a driver of South Sudan’s humanitarian crisis and contributes to displacement. The 2023 Global Report on Food Crises highlighted other drivers of the crisis, including very high staple food prices that are a result of insufficient domestic food supplies; low foreign currency reserves and the weak national currency; high fuel prices; and reduced imports from neighboring Uganda. These factors result in limited access to livelihoods, lack of agricultural opportunities and continued insecurity, which forces people to flee their homes in search of safety and food assistance.

According to South Sudan’s 2023 Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRRP), “Some of the vulnerabilities and risk stem from exposure to endemic violence and the impact of climate chocks in the country of origin and others are magnified by prolonged displacement in situations where the needs outstrip the available resources for assistance, compounded by environments not conducive to self-reliance.”

The refugee crisis is a children’s crisis; children between the ages of 0-17 make up over 50% of the population, according to the 2023 RRRP. Refugee children face particular risks, including child labor, abduction and exposure to being trafficked.

In December 2023, acute food insecurity remained high in South Sudan. The flooding and dry spells combined with currency depreciation, high food prices, conflict and insecurity are driving factors.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a common scale for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity and acute malnutrition. The scale includes five phases, with Phase 1 meaning there is no or minimal acute food insecurity and Phase 5 meaning famine has been reached.

In their January 2024 South Sudan Key Message Update, FEWS NET said Crisis (IPC 3) outcomes are expected to continue across the country, with Emergency (IPC 4) outcomes projected to grow from 22 to 28 counties.

According to FEWS NET, this deterioration in food security outcomes is “due to protracted negative impacts of conflict and poor macroeconomic conditions, compounded by high returnee burden and faster-than-normal depletion of household food stocks.”

A WFP and Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN report released in May 2023 said, “The eruption of armed conflict in the Sudan in April 2023 is likely to have significant ramifications for its neighbouring countries, in particular large population movements and increasing levels of acute food insecurity among displaced and returning populations, and host communities across several regions.”

The combined effects of devastating flooding, linked to climate change, and armed conflict have reduced agricultural production, led to a loss of livelihoods and destroyed household assets. The WFP warned in November 2023 that children in flood-affected parts of South Sudan are expected to face extreme levels of malnutrition in the first half of 2024 “as the climate crisis tightens its grip on the country.”

South Sudan’s poor health indicators are due to limited access to health services, shortage of health workforce and inadequate health infrastructure.

Most of the neglected tropical diseases in South Sudan are endemic, posing a serious health threat. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 12 million people are at risk of infection from neglected tropical diseases which cause pain, disabilities and other impacts. Such diseases include elephantiasis, onchocerciasis or river blindness, schistosomiasis or bilharzia, and other skin infections.

South Sudan’s Ministry of Health (MoH) declared a Yellow Fever outbreak in Yambio County, Western Equatoria State. On Dec. 7, 2023, the MoH confirmed an imported case of cholera in the Renk Transit Center following an active outbreak in Sudan.

On Feb. 13, 2024, the MoH, along with WHO and other partners, announced a Yellow Fever vaccination campaign.

The country is also battling a measles outbreak. As of week 45 in 2023, more than 7,000 suspected cases were reported, with 534 lab-confirmed and 152 deaths.