2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake

• Three weeks since the Feb. 6 earthquakes and subsequent aftershocks, the disaster’s death toll continues to climb. The earthquakes and underlying vulnerabilities resulted in the deaths of at least 56,000 people in Turkey and Syria. Aid workers are among those killed.
• The humanitarian community estimates that 8.8 million people live in areas most affected by the earthquake in Syria. Overall, 170 sub-districts in 43 districts in 10 of Syria’s governorates have been impacted by the earthquake. Prior to the earthquake more than 15 million people in Syria were already in need of assistance in 2023.
• On Feb. 8, Turkey’s President Erdogan admitted to problems with his government’s initial response amid frustration with the pace of relief and the earthquake’s devastation. Turkey is investigating some contractors, but the entire political and economic system is arguably implicated.
• The UN and humanitarian partners have launched an earthquake Flash Appeal for Syria covering February to March 2023. The Flash Appeal requests $397.6 million to reach 4.9 million people and is complementary to the 2022-2023 Syria Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP).
• An earthquake Flash Appeal for Turkey was announced on Feb. 17 and covers February to April 2023. Turkey’s Flash Appeal requests $1 billion to reach 5.2 million people.
• On Feb. 9, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it was issuing a 180-day “general license” for earthquake relief in Syria, which is effectively a suspension of sanctions.
• At least 230,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed across 11 provinces in Turkey and at least 10,600 buildings have been completely or partially destroyed in northwest Syria. In Aleppo alone, around 3,500 buildings are damaged and need structural repair and 700 buildings are classified as unsafe.
• According to the World Bank’s Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report, direct damages in Turkey from the earthquakes are estimated at $34.2 billion. The report says the reconstruction costs “will be higher depending on the extent of new construction codes and guidelines being used.”
• The Syria Earthquake 2023 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) found that the country’s real gross domestic product is expected to contract by 5.5% in 2023 following the February 6 and February 20 earthquakes.
• The Syria Earthquake 2023 RDNA says physical damages caused by the earthquake are estimated at $3.7 billion, while losses are estimated at US $1.5 billion. The total estimated impact to US $5.2 billion. The GRADE Report for Syria had estimated $5.1 billion in direct physical damages. The RDNA estimates recovery and reconstruction needs across the six assessed governorates at $7.9 billion.
• As of March 15, more than 103,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) have been recorded in northwest Syria since the first earthquake struck on Feb. 6. The International Organization for Migration reports that 3 million people have been displaced by the earthquakes in Turkey.
• UNDP said the earthquakes generated at least 10 times as much rubble in Turkey as the last big Turkish earthquake in 1999. Both affected countries face the daunting task of disposing of hundreds of millions of tonnes of rubble, some of it potentially harmful.
• In Turkey, access to education has been hampered for nearly 4 million children, including 350,000 refugee and migrant children.

In northwest Syria, the hardest hit area of the country, 4.1 million people already depend on humanitarian assistance. The humanitarian community estimates that 8.8 million people live in areas that have been most affected by the earthquake in Syria.

After 12 years of conflict and recent earthquakes, the World Food Programme says 12.1 million people in Syria, more than 50% of the population, are currently food insecure and a further 2.9 million are at risk of sliding into hunger. Almost three weeks after the earthquake, food prices in Syria remained high in the affected areas. Prices of diesel fuel and livestock are also on the rise.

According to UNOCHA, “In 2022, 85 per cent of households [in Syria] were unable to meet their basic needs, with a disproportionate impact on populations with vulnerabilities compounded by age, gender, and/or disability. In a country where only 59 per cent of hospitals, 57 per cent of primary health care facilities and 63 per cent of specialized centres were fully functional before the earthquake, this earthquake will result in a further collapse of basic services, and significantly delay any scope for recovery.”

The Syrian complex humanitarian emergency is characterized by more than 10 years of ongoing hostilities and their long-term effects, including large-scale internal and cross-border displacement, widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure, and significant violations of international humanitarian law. In the wake of the earthquakes, there was a lull in fighting; however, as detailed in a March 23 briefing to the UN Security Council, UN officials warned of the slow rise in shelling exchanges, rocket fire and crossline raids by terrorist groups.

There are concerns about how the disaster will affect assistance for millions displaced by conflict in a region with broad and significant long-term needs. Humanitarian access from Turkey to northwest Syria grew with the opening of Bal Al-Salam and Al Ra’ee border crossings on Feb. 14 for an initial period of three months. Until this development, the Bab al-Hawa border crossing was the only one authorized by the UN Security Council for aid shipments. As of March 24, more than 1,000 trucks loaded with aid had crossed into northwest Syria since Feb. 9. Nearly 800 of these trucks passed through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing.

As Leen Fouad articulates in this ODI blog, Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad has long viewed cross-border aid operations into the opposition-held northwest as an infringement of Syria’s sovereignty. Unfortunately, the Syrian regime continues to politicize earthquake aid. For example, the government blocked crossline aid convoys to people impacted by the earthquake in government-held Aleppo city. Fouad says “the international humanitarian community must ensure that aid continues to uphold humanitarian principles and reach the most vulnerable.”

The International Rescue Committee’s policy, advocacy and communications director for Middle East and North Africa Mark Kaye said, ”For this area, you have to remember: This population [was] already highly vulnerable. They have a huge amount of people who have already been displaced — sometimes as many as 20 times … Almost the majority of them are women and children, particularly vulnerable to the harsh weather and this earthquake.”

In their Feb. 25 northwest Syria Situation Report, UNOCHA said, “The border crossing closure pre-dating the earthquake is escalating health needs: Before the quakes, around 30 cases from Syria per day crossed the borders to get medical attention in Türkiye. Since the border closure, this capacity to receive quality health support has been affected.”

On March 7, several airstrikes were reported around the Aleppo Airport forcing it to shut down until further notice. The closure has resulted in the suspension of all flights from Aleppo for the UN Humanitarian Air Service. The closure could have severe humanitarian implications for people in Aleppo, one of the worst earthquake-impacted governorates in Syria.

According to survey results released by Oxfam on March 14, “Three in every four people in Aleppo have had to reduce daily meals since the earthquake and nearly all of them say they have taken on extra debt or their children out of school in order to cope.” Twenty-two percent of respondents had lost their jobs or sources of income, and 37% had borrowed money to cover their families’ needs.

In their March 27 Syria Earthquake Situation Report, OCHA said there is “a need to provide support to farmers and agricultural activities in urban areas.” In Turkey, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said the earthquakes caused $6.7 billion in losses and damage to crops, livestock production, food stocks, agricultural infrastructure and assets. These damages may affect food security in the country. Meeting the food security and livelihood needs of underserved populations in Turkey is proving challenging, especially in rural areas and informal settlements.

Damage assessments are ongoing. However, at least 230,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed across 11 provinces in Turkey and at least 10,600 buildings have been completely or partially destroyed in northwest Syria. In Aleppo alone, around 3,500 buildings are damaged and need structural repair and 700 buildings are classified as unsafe.

UNOCHA said in its March 17 Turkey Earthquake Situation Report that “2.3 million people have been identified as living in formal and informal settlements across earthquake affected areas as of 16 March. Out of this number, 1.6 million have been identified to be living in informal settlements.”

According to Turkey’s AFAD, as of March 1, 358,000 tents had been set up and tent cities have been established in 11 provinces. The number of people provided with shelter services in and outside of Turkey’s disaster zone is more than 1.9 million.

According to the World Bank’s Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation Report, direct damages in Turkey from the earthquakes are estimated at $34.2 billion. The total direct damages are mostly damages to residential buildings ($18 billion or 53% of total). The report says that based on global experience, “recovery and reconstruction costs will be much larger, potentially twice as large” as the $34.2 billion figure.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says his country will start building tens of thousands of new homes as early as March. Additionally, Erdogan said the new buildings will be no taller than four stories, built on firmer ground and to higher standards. On Feb. 25 Turkey’s Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said at least 184 people have been detained over alleged negligence concerning collapsed buildings following the quakes. However, the government has been criticized for overlooking poor construction standards.

According to UNOCHA in their March 23 Turkey Earthquake Situation Report, “The Turkish Government has devised a comprehensive recovery plan for the majority of those affected by the earthquake, which involves transitioning from Tent Cities to Container Cities or appropriate rental housing. However, it is widely acknowledged that there are families who are either unwilling, ineligible, unable, or simply waiting to relocate to the government-designated pathway. These families may choose or have no choice but to stay in informal sites.”

The GRADE Report for Syria estimates $5.1 billion in direct physical damages. The World Bank says, “Direct damages to residential buildings account for nearly half of total damages (48.5% of the median value or US$2.5 billion), while damages in non-residential buildings (e.g., health facilities, schools, government buildings, and private sector buildings) account for one third of the total impact (33.5% or US $9.7 billion).”

Additionally, the GRADE Report for Syria found that “Aleppo (population of 4.2 million) was the most severely hit governorate with 45% of the estimated damages (US$2.3 billion) followed by Idlib (37% or US$1.9 billion) and Lattakia (11% or US$549 million).”

UNOCHA’s March 9 Syria Earthquake Situation Report says, “The continuous change in the number of collective shelters and their residents, which to date has reached 100 shelters for around 48,431 people in Aleppo City, constitutes a serious challenge for the humanitarian response.”

In the same Situation Report, the Humanitarian Country Team’s (HCT) statement regarding settlement establishment included, “At present, government authorities are moving toward the planning and establishment of ‘temporary’ settlements in the GoS [Government of Syria] areas to provide short/ medium term shelter for those most affected. While the shelter sector has provided preliminary assistance on the planning of a settlement, intersector/HCT clarity is required around the principles and parameters of same.”

The Shelter/Non-Food Item (SNFI) cluster estimated that 280,000 people in northwest Syria are in immediate need of shelter and NFIs support due to the earthquakes. Outside of northwest Syria, the SNFI sector is in urgent need of funding for activities in Syria as the funding gap has reached $35.8 million as of March 16.

According to The New Humanitarian, “Last month’s deadly earthquakes have made an already massive shelter crisis in northwest Syria much worse, with both aid groups and newly displaced people concerned that long-term efforts to rehouse millions in the battered region have been set back years.”

New guidance from the Shelter/NFI Cluster in northwest Syria says the Humanitarian Leadership Group (HLG) supports “improved temporary shelters for people facing protracted displacement…” Additionally, the guidance says, “At this stage, while the conflict in Syria continues, the HLG is not supporting any construction of permanent housing for displaced people in NW Syria.”

Snow and near-freezing conditions pose serious health risks to people in earthquake-affected areas. Winter clothing and supplies, including heating equipment, remains a critical need.

Speaking on CNN after the earthquake, meteorologist Karen Maginnis described the risks of the winter storm: “Hundreds of thousands of people are impacted by this. It is cold. It is rainy. Roads could be impacted, that means your food, your livelihood, the care for your children, the care for your family.”